There has been a lot of speculation about what the future holds for Facebook after the social media giant turn ten years old earlier this year. Some people think it's starting to lose its "cool" and is destined for a similar fate to that of Myspace. A study by Princeton researchers published in January forecasted Facebook's "impending doom" by comparing its growth curve to that of an infectious disease, predicting that it will lose 80 percent of its users by 2017. It's true-- there are tons of newer, hipper social media companies that have had massive success, like the photo-sharing app Instagram (which is actually owned by Facebook) and the popular direct-messaging app Snapchat. But is Facebook really headed on a crash course to self-destruction? I don't think so.
We may not like Facebook, but we need it. Zuckerberg has created a social media empire that has reached the point of ubiquity, boasting over a billion users worldwide. In the U.S., 57 percent of all adults and 73 percent of people ages 12-17 have a Facebook account. No other social media platform is used by such a majority of the population. If you meet someone new on campus or while vacationing in a foreign country, it's an almost-guarantee you'll be able to find them on Facebook and stay in touch. Even if it's no longer "cool," we need it more than we realize.
Zuckerberg directly addressed people's concerns that Facebook was losing its cool in an interview he gave to The Atlantic's editor-in-chief, James Bennet. "Maybe electricity was cool when it first came out," he said. "The real question you want to track at that point is: Are fewer people turning on their lights because it's less cool?"
Zuckerberg is very open about the fact that staying "cool" was never his goal for Facebook. It doesn't need to be cool. He just wants it to be something you can't live without. And with a rock-solid user base in the U.S. and a rapidly-expanding base globally, Zuckerberg is well on his way to achieving that goal. And now that Facebook has reached the stage of dominance, it can afford to experiment with new, creative ways to transform itself and become more profitable.
Part of Zuckerberg's vision for Facebook's future is to deconstruct it into a series of separate mobile apps, each with a separate purpose. His goal is to move away from the all-in-one Facebook platform we've become accustomed to, in favor of unique experiences that will keep users more engaged and draw in more ad revenue. The New York Times article "The Future of Facebook May Not Say Facebook" explores this new model that Zuckerberg calls Creative Labs, which seeks to unbundle Facebook into separate apps that may not even require a Facebook account to use. Zuckerberg said separate apps are simpler and easier to use, creating a more efficient and enjoyable experience for users.
But some question-- will it work? Facebook Paper, a news-sharing platform, was introduced with a lot of hype but failed to deliver the popularity that many predicted. Facebook Messenger had even less success, but as Facebook recently announced, users will soon have no choice but to download Messenger to chat directly with their friends. The company is now forcing users to download Messenger by removing traditional messaging capabilities from its main Facebook app. It promises users it will make their experience more enjoyable, but a lot of people think it's a mistake. After all, nobody likes being told what to do.
Even so, I don't think Zuckerberg has any reason to sweat. The simple fact is, unless we have the cell phone numbers of all the people we want to stay in contact with, Facebook will always be our next-best option. If we're planning an event or organizing meetings for a group project, there is no surer platform for getting in touch with everyone we need to reach. The network effects of Facebook render it a social necessity in today's world, and it's not going to die out because no other company is in any position to replace it. We may not like what Zuckerberg is doing, but it doesn't matter-- We have no choice but to go with the flow. And now that Zuckerberg has his grip on us, he has full reign to experiment with new ideas to generate larger amounts of revenue. Pretty smart, huh?
Electricity, like Facebook, is no longer cool--But that doesn't mean we'll stop using it.
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